The same twelve minutes on each route
Both routes get the order. They differ in what Shopify believes while it’s happening.
On TikTok’s channel, the sale goes like this. A TikTok order comes in at 8:03. TikTok asks Shopify how many are in stock, Shopify says 37, the order is created in Shopify and the count moves. Orders 2 to 40 go the same way. Order 41 arrives at 8:09, TikTok asks Shopify, Shopify says 0, and the order isn’t created in Shopify at all. The buyer has still bought it on TikTok. Orders 41 to 55 sit in Seller Center with nothing in Shopify to match them. That behaviour is in Shopify’s help page for the channel, under how inventory is checked when an order is placed. It’s a reasonable design for a catalogue that sells a few units a day.
On QuickSync, TikTok pushes each order to us the moment it’s placed; we don’t ask on a timer. Shopify’s count is corrected in under a second, so at 8:03 Shopify says 39, at 8:09 it says 0, and the storefront stops selling. Orders 41 to 55 still exist, because TikTok took them, and they arrive in the same list as the first 40 with their TikTok order numbers on them. You cancel 15 and refund 15 in Seller Center, same as on the other route. What you don’t have is a Shopify count that read 12 while TikTok was selling the last one.
One kind of order is left out either way. If TikTok ships it for you (Fulfilled by TikTok), TikTok holds that stock and we mark the order as not ours to sync. Your Shopify count was never the count it shipped from.